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It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.